Week Ahead US Jobs and Fed to Guide Markets

Soft US growth to pressure Fed ahead of Jobs report

The US dollar is mixed against majors with gains against the NZD, JPY, CAD and AUD but weaker against the EUR and GBP. Risk appetite in Europe returned after the restful of the first round of elections in France left Macron and LePen heading into the May 7 deciding second round. The Trump administration presented its tax reform plan and launched a more aggressive trade offensive against NAFTA but anxiety around the dollar surged with the first release of the US GDP in the first quarter coming in below expectations at 0.7 percent.

US employment data will key alongside the May monetary policy meeting of the Fed. The ADP private payroll data will be published on Wednesday, May 3 at 8:15 am EDT. Job creation in the private sector has beat expectations since January, but the market has a conservative estimate of under 200,000. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the statement of the monetary policy meeting at 2:00 pm with no change expected to the rates. The meeting is not scheduled to have a press conference which will put more emphasis on the written statement as analysts and investors look for insights into the Fed’s next steps.

The U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) will be released on Friday, May 5 at 8:30 am EDT. Last month the jobs report was well below expectations with a gain of 98,000 when 170,000 were expected. US employment has been the strongest pillar in the recovery but it has hit some bumps of late. The U.S. Federal Reserve will look at the wage growth component for signs of inflation as they ponder the number of rate hikes this year. The unemployment rate is expected to head higher to 4.6 percent as more people look to rejoin the workforce.